FACT: UK has a relatively low infection rate but a very high death rate when it comes to Coronavirus...
Ian Knowles • 20 April 2020
Lets get beyond headlines and dig into some facts...

How much of a mess has our government made of things? The focus on testing? Well, look at the chart above and you can see that we haven't been as bad as people might have thought, compared to France for example, and now our rate is not so dissimilar from South Korea. But how badly are we doing in containing the virus? Are we corralling it or is it whipping us?
Most new cases in absolute numbers:
As of today, April 20th, UK is no 2 in Europe, no.3 globally, after the USA and Russia, for new cases of infection.
Germany is 10th in Europe for new cases. Globally 18th. I will refer to Germany because it is a comparable developed nation, with a national health service and industrial base.
However, these are absolute figures, rather than compared to the population base. 100 infections in a population of 150 is far more serious than if the population is 100, right? So, let's be provisional in our judgment at this point.
UK is number 4 globally, no 3 in Europe.
France is ahead of Italy for the most new deaths.
Again, no figures per head of population.
So headline figures put four of the five major countries of Europe at the forefront of the pandemic. Germany, the fifth in Europe, is not far behind in the global chart - ranking 12th. And remember that Germany is held up by many as the gold standard about what we should have done.
But let's look at this in terms of per head of population, a much more accurate indicator of how seriously the situation is in context rather than as a headline figure.
Total cases per 1m of the population.
As you can see from the table below,
UK ranks 20th,
Germany is 21,
Ireland no. 12.
Portugal no. 18.
So, in terms of containing the spread
of the virus the UK has done relatively well,
much better than say Ireland or Iceland or Portugal, all of whom have had very strong testing regimes in place. I am not saying testing isn't important, I am just pointing out that in terms of containing the spread the UK is not doing badly, at least so far. It could be a lot worse.
The death rate
HOWEVER, the worrying thing is the rate of deaths per infection.
Here the UK has a poor record, and that is where our thoughts should be focused. Let's look at the figures. Its the column on the far right.
OK, so let's put aside the small countries as they really aren't a large enough sample to make a fair comparison. Belgium, Spain, Italy, France all have death rates per head of population larger than the UK and Spain, and Belgium by nearly 100%. We are bunched in the 'hyper category' of deaths, twice the rate of the USA. And given the high rate of new cases
we can expect that figure to rise to be somewhat comparable to that of France at least.
It's this which no one has been talking about, with all the focus being on the infection rate and testing, while in fact we are actually doing relatively well at keeping that low. Can you imagine what the death toll would have been in the UK if we had the same infection rate as Germany, for example? It doesn't bear thinking about.
So, we need to be thinking hard about how we can lower the mortality rate. Thank God Oxford University is onto the case in developing a real hope for a vaccine, and unlike Trump's America we are not trying to get it for ourselves. The govt has been backing this, so credit where credit is due. A vaccine is desperately needed if the death rate is to be cut.